The Third Xbox - Developers Now Have Development Kits! - When Will It Launch?

Electronic Arts has told reliable sources in the videogame industry something very interesting. Apparently EA is now in possession of alpha development kids for the third Xbox console from Microsoft. This development kit is apparently in some form of PC casing structure, similar to the alpha development kit released for the original Xbox. Job postings from Microsoft confirm a next-generation console is being designed; however, these job postings seem to indicate the console is quite a ways away.

This next-generation console from Microsoft will definitely be released, but we do not know exactly when this console will be released or what its name will be. Some rumors have suggested the third Xbox will be released as early as 2012 in order to compete with Nintendo’s next console, currently called the Wii 2. While other rumors have suggested that Microsoft’s next console may not see a release until 2015.

Here are my thoughts where I focus on facts in order to generate a fact-based theory.

1. We know for a fact that the Nintendo Wii 2 will be released in 2012.

2. We know for a fact that the Wii 2 will be a direct competitor of the Xbox 360 and the PS3. The hardware specifications of the Wii 2 are nearly identical to the Xbox 360 and PS3. For example, the Wii 2 has 512MB of RAM just like Xbox 360 and PS3. We also know the GPU of the Wii 2 is from ATI and nearly identical to the Xbox 360 GPU from ATI. We also know the CPU of the Wii 2 is tri-core, just like the Xbox 360 CPU.

3. We know for a fact that the Wii 2 will not be competing directly with the third Xbox and PS4 (if there is a PS4, since Sony has literally lost billions of dollars on PS3).

4. We know for a fact that NPD sales show Xbox 360 was the #1 selling console in 2010. We also know for a fact that NPD sales show Xbox 360 has been the #1 selling console every month of 2011.

5. We know for a fact that Kinect is in the Guinness Book of World Records for being such a high-selling item. Over ten million units of Kinect have been sold in a record time period.

6. We know for a fact that Xbox 360 continues to see annual sales growth. We also know that the Wii and PS3 have seen annual sales decline in 2011.

Based on these six fact-based elements, I can form a fact-based theory that says Microsoft has no motive to put an early end to the life of Xbox 360.

Now let's look at my hypothesis based on estimations of what Microsoft has done in the past. While I do not have facts to support this hypothesis, I do believe my experience in the game industry has merit to support my thoughts.

A. We know that games like Halo and Gears of War tend to be released every other year. But we also know that Gears of War 3 took three years to be developed because Microsoft and Epic wanted to develop everything correctly. This is the same type of precision and accuracy that Microsoft and Epic would want to apply when a new console is released. This is particularly true with a game like Gears of War that is known for setting new standards in graphics technology.

B. This means that if Gears of War were a launch game for the third Xbox, the soonest it would happen would be 2013—two years from 2011. But it seems like Epic and Microsoft would want to spend extra time developing graphics engines and making use of superior hardware. I think a new Gears of War game (probably a prequel named Gears of War: The Pendulum Wars) would be released in 2014. In my opinion, if Gears of War is the launch game for the next Xbox, the soonest the console would be available is 2014.

C. If Microsoft wanted to launch the third Xbox in 2013, I believe the launch game they would need to do it with is Halo. I say this because Halo: Reach was released in 2010. The developers would have the three years of development they probably would need to release a new Halo game on new hardware. Plus, Halo is a killer-app game that would guarantee all of the consoles sell out!

Based on these three thoughts, I can guarantee that the third Xbox will be released by the end of 2014. But I believe 2013 may be too soon. The third Xbox will not be meant to compete with the Wii 2. The third Xbox will be meant to compete with high-end PC technology and the PS4 (if there is a PS4). In all probability the PS3 will not be able to generate an overall profit by 2014 or 2015. PS3 will have cost Sony literally billions of dollars, which is why rumors have circulated for quite a while saying that the PS3 will be Sony's last videogame console.

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