Halo 4: On Xbox 360 or Xbox Infinity? ... Or BOTH!

Here is an excellent question that one of my loyal readers, Mr. Jose Ramos, recently sent to me in an email at my email address of michaelzoran@hotmail.com:

Hey Michael,

First off, great articles. I do like Xbox Infinity as a name. Sounds pretty cool and I definitely can not wait for them to announce it officially.

Now, couple of friends of mine and myself have had the argument regarding Halo 4. I say that it is just stupid for MS to release Halo 4 for Xbox 360 and at the same time release their new console. But rumors point out to the fact that MS will in fact release a new console in the fall of 2012. So my guess is that Halo 4 is actually being developed for the next Xbox, instead of Xbox 360. Of course, the developers already stated that it is being developed for Xbox 360, but that is just because Xbox Infinity hasn't been officially announced, Others say that precisely because of this, they know that Xbox Infinity won't be out till 2013.

So I ask you, what is your take on all of this? Halo 4 for Xbox Infinity….or what?

Cheers!
Jose Ramos

Cheers, to you, too, Jose! You ask an excellent question that I, too, have wondered about quite a bit. Here are my thoughts on the release of Halo 4.

First, we know it is a fact that Microsoft has officially announced Halo 4 for the Xbox 360. This means there is no doubt Halo 4 will be released for Xbox 360 in late 2012, right? The answer is actually, “Not necessarily.”

Remember when Microsoft originally purchased the software company called Rare from Nintendo for $400 million. Microsoft publicly announced Perfect Dark Zero would be released for the original Xbox. However, history has proven that Microsoft later decided to release Perfect Dark Zero for the launch of Xbox 360. Obviously, this means the potential exists for Microsoft to change their minds about the release of Halo 4.

From this point on, everything I say is based on theories, hypotheses, and overall speculation. Let’s outline the information we have, though:

* Halo 4 is probably going to experience the most explosively-successful launch of any exclusive title released so far for Xbox 360.

* There are far more Xbox 360 owners now than ever before. Halo 4 would help Microsoft generate huge amounts of financial revenue and net profit.

* Halo 4 represents a new trilogy. The huge Xbox 360 market can be used as an open doorway to pull consumers into the new trilogy. This form of bait can be used to get consumers hooked on the new trilogy. Gamers would obviously experience some form of “Cliffhanger” ending that would leave everyone who played the game begging to play the sequel. By releasing the sequel to Halo 4 on the Xbox Infinity, the hardware sales of Xbox Infinity would skyrocket at a point in time when Microsoft would be able to supply enough units to meet the demand!

* Halo 5 would represent a killer-app capable of selling hardware units during the second or third season the Xbox Infinity console was on the market. Prices would have dropped on the hardware unit because of economies of scale, and developers would have become familiar with the hardware. The level of marketing behind Halo 5 would be unbelievable. This description of Halo 5 is exactly what Microsoft did with Halo 3 in 2007.

Other side of the story:

* Halo 1 and Halo 2 were incredibly successful games on the original Xbox. But the size of the original Xbox market was small compared to the Xbox 360. Microsoft was very intelligent to leave Halo 2 with a cliffhanger ending, and then use Halo 3 on the Xbox 360 to be the most successful killer-app console-selling exclusive game released this generation on any platform.

* Halo is now the best-selling exclusive franchise available on any HD console. There is no doubt Halo 4 is going to represent an “open door” capable of selling hardware units – regardless of when it is released or what platform it is released on.

* Microsoft won’t need to use a “cliffhanger ending” from Halo 4 to use Halo 5 as the killer-app capable of selling Xbox Infinity consoles at a later point in time. The Xbox market is now exponentially larger than it was during the era of the original Xbox. The Xbox market has more momentum now than ever before.

* Despite the fact that Halo 4 represents a new trilogy in the Halo series, Halo has millions of loyal fans who will buy Halo 4 no matter what. The day Halo 4 is released we will see millions of Halo fans make sure they own the console it is released for.

* I do agree with you that it may seem a bit dumb to release Halo 4 on Xbox 360 while simultaneously releasing a new console. However, from what my friend has told me, Microsoft believes it is very important to release the Xbox Infinity early in order to get a head start on the competition.

* Microsoft apparently knows they will only have a very limited number of Xbox Infinity units to launch with. This is why the console will only be released in the home market of North America. The price will be expensive because it will be overloaded with the most advanced technology in order to deal with the fact that it will be competing with a console being launched at a later point in time.

* When the Xbox Infinity launches, it will completely sell out – no matter which console receives Halo 4.

* Releasing Halo 5 for Xbox Infinity during the 2014 or 2015 shopping season would really be the perfect way to pull in a lot of consumers to the Xbox Infinity market. This would cause Xbox Infinity to receive all the market attention in a way the competition cannot compete with. We saw this happen during the holiday shopping season of 2007 when Halo 3 launched for Xbox 360.

Summary

The pieces of information I presented represent my personal points of view on Halo 4. Obviously there are a lot of possibilities that could happen. At any moment, Microsoft could change their mind and release Halo 4 for Xbox Infinity.

One thing I can tell you for sure is that if Halo 4 really does launch worldwide at the end of 2012, it will definitely not be for the Xbox Infinity. Here’s how I know this. I was told that if the Xbox Infinity is able to launch in 2012, there would only be enough units to launch in North America. I was told that Europe would see the release of Xbox Infinity at some point in 2013 (and I wasn’t told anything about Japan).

Obviously it would be incredibly foolish for Microsoft to launch Halo 4 at a point in time when the console is only available in one part of the world. So, I can tell you with 100% confidence that if Halo 4 does in fact release at the end of 2012, it will not be for Xbox Infinity.

If you want my honest opinion, based on the combination of history and current announcements, I believe Halo 4 will be released worldwide for Xbox 360 at the end of 2012.

If Xbox Infinity is released at the end of 2012 in the home market of North America, it will be similar to the way Sony and Nintendo release hardware in their home territory of Japan first. This will be done to gain a head start on the competition. The killer-apps will probably come from third-party titles such as Call of Duty. There will be huge graphic advantages seen in the Xbox Infinity versions of these third-party games.

This is what happened with the launch of Xbox 360 in 2005. The top-selling game that proved to be a killer-app was Call of Duty 2. Other games that sold well were Perfect Dark Zero, Ridge Racer, Fight Night Round 3, Project Gotham Racing 3, and other third-party titles.

If 2013 is the year when Xbox Infinity is released on a global scale, similar to the global launch of Xbox 360, I don’t think Halo 4 will be a launch title. If Microsoft did this, Halo 4 probably wouldn’t have as large an impact as it could if the game was released just one year after the launch. When a console launches, it is at the highest price it will ever see and have the smallest market it will ever see. This isn’t the type of environment Microsoft favors for the launch of a game like Halo.

If Xbox Infinity is released in North America in late 2012, expect the third-party games to be the console sellers. Once Microsoft sells out that initial batch of launch units and sells throughout 2013, it guarantees the third-party software companies will continue to support the Xbox brand with big games. 2013 will be a much bigger year filled with first-party exclusives to some of Microsoft’s best games.

2013 will probably be the year we see a new trilogy in the Gears of War series. The game will be released for Xbox Infinity, using brand new standards in graphic excellence based on the Unreal Graphics Engine. This Gears of War game has the goal of selling Xbox Infinity units to consumers and marketing the new Unreal Graphics Engine to developers. From what I’m told, there is an excellent chance the first game in this new Gears of War trilogy will be called “Gears of War: The Pendulum Wars.”

In all probability, Halo 5 will be the first Halo game we see for Xbox Infinity. I suspect that Halo 5 will be released during the second or third season on the market. Microsoft knows their winning strategy of releasing Gears of War one year and Halo the next year is something they should stick with.

I hope all this information helps you out, Jose. I believe I presented all the most probable points of view to you and your friends. The chances seem to favor Halo 4 being released for Xbox 360 in late 2012. Plus, it wouldn’t surprise me if at some point in the life of the Xbox Infinity there was a remix of Halo 4 sold online – just like what Microsoft did with Halo: Combat Evolved on Xbox 360. Take care, and have a nice 2012!